A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
