Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
