It was two months prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
Per Opta, in only two games has the side had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
